Small climb in mean temperatures linked to far higher chance of deadly heat waves: UCI-led analysis of data from India could have dire implications for future — ScienceDaily BULLSHIT ALERT

Posted: June 8, 2017 in Bad Science, Corruption, government, LIES, politics
Tags: , , ,

An increase in mean temperature of 0.5 degrees Celsius over half a century may not seem all that serious, but it’s enough to have more than doubled the probability of a heat wave killing in excess of 100 people in India, according to researchers.

Source: Small climb in mean temperatures linked to far higher chance of deadly heat waves: UCI-led analysis of data from India could have dire implications for future — ScienceDaily

This is not on my usual topic, but illustrates bad science clearly, and the difficulty that “scientists” have discerning causality, even in formerly reputable schools.  Here, it says that the mean temperature CAUSES the likelihood of occasional heat waves.  Hello– isn’t it quite apparent that the occasional heat waves are what increase the mean temperature???

Let me illustrate:  Suppose we have a stable mean of 100, but a one time spike of 120:  100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 120, 100, 100.  That one spike to 120 increased the mean from 100, to 102.  In other words, the heat wave raised the mean, not the implied vice versa.  And this also does not mean that the heat wave caused the mean– only that the mean and the occasional heat spikes are correlated.  So called “scientists” often confuse correlation with causality, as shown so often in cannabis studies.

AuntieBS

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